Below are my predictions on who will get into Top 5 for TV King.
Note that this is who I THINK will get into top 5, not who I WANT to get into top 5. In other words, the below predictions are NOT based on my personal preferences, but rather who has the highest chances based on all the information that has been out there so far. Just wanted to make it clear so that people don't get confused.
Top 5 predictions for TV King (in no particular order): Moses Chan, Raymond Lam, Wayne Lai, Steven Ma, Kevin Cheng
Moses: Well, he IS one of TVB's favorites so of course he will get in -- plus TVB went to great lengths to 'rig' the ratings for his series CBML, which tells me that they are trying to increase his chances. Also, Moses won both TV King as well as Favorite Male Character back in 2007 for his HOG role and has pretty much been in the running for both awards since then, though the focus hasn't been on him those 2 years because there were other 'hype' that overshadowed it (the Raymond vs Ha Yu thing in 2008 and the overwhelming success of Wayne Lai / Rosy Business in 2009).
Plus, based on TVB's actions so far, looks like Moses is 'back on top' again this year. In fact, in today’s Lighting Ceremony, Moses got the ‘prime spot’ during the group picture, standing right next to Dodo Cheng -- those familiar with TVB’s Lighting Ceremony knows that this means he is the hot favorite this year, as the closer one stands to Sir Run Run Shaw in the front row, the more ‘important’ he/she is to TVB. (Of course, Dodo and Liza Wang always occupy the space to the left and right of Mr. Shaw – it’s the people who surround them that are of the most interest).
What I think: Personally, Moses' performance in CBML was not that good – it was way too OTT (over the top) and is very similar to all the other comedic roles he's had -- nothing different, nothing special, no 'wow' factor. Oh, and his performance in the other series from earlier this year (ITEOTB)? It was a total joke! (ok, I admit some bias here because he was paired with Myolie in ITEOTB and I can't stand her). Regardless, the point is that I wouldn't be surprised if TVB gives the award to him purely based on the 'success' of CBML…if TVB gave him the award because he truly deserved it based on his acting, then that’s one thing, but if they give it to him because he is their favorite and his series was highly rated, then that’s totally wrong.
> Raymond: Of course Raymond will get into the Top 5 -- he's TVB's favorite 'biological son' and has been heavily promoted the past 2 years (2 concerts, 2 movies, 3 series, endless public events, etc.) He has pretty much been everywhere this year (I see an article about him in the news like every single week almost). Also, his series MOL -- which paired him with Tavia again -- was highly rated (the second highest rated series this year so far, beaten out only by CBML) -- so according to TVB's standards, I guess that automatically 'qualifies' him to be in contention for the award. In addition, it's important to note that 'rumor' has it back in 2008, TVB was planning to give the TV King award to Raymond, but because of the overwhelming audience support for Ha Yu (as well as TVB's notorious 'snub' of him in 2007), they had no choice but to give it to Ha Yu. TVB has been 'itching' to give the award to Raymond since then, but of course, since he didn't have any series nominated in 2009, they couldn't do it. This year, he's got 2 series in the running, though the other (GTL) was not well-received at all....
What I think: I feel that Raymond's performances in both his series weren't that great this year – maybe because he has way too much on his plate (tv series, movies, music -- he's pretty much been working non-stop), plus all his injuries this year....it's definitely affecting his performance. He needs to give it a rest and take care of his health first or else his career will be VERY short-lived -- but I guess that won't happen as long as he is under TVB's management. I know I'm putting my neck out there when I say this, but I don't think Raymond deserves to get the award this year for the reasons I outlined above. However, I don't think he needs to worry, since it's pretty much a given that TVB will reward him at the JSG awards end of this year....
Also, I had suggested a theory earlier on in another forum that TVB has decided to ‘switch gears’ now and instead of promoting Raymond for TV King, they are going with Moses instead (for obvious reasons – Raymond’s performance in MOL was so-so and his other series tanked, so it would be harder to justify giving him TV King). I’m actually beginning to believe this theory more after reading about today’s Lighting Ceremony and seeing the placements in the group picture – as stated above, Moses got the prime ‘Male Lead’ spot (along with Wayne)….Raymond was relegated to ‘second banana’ as he was standing next to Charmaine, who was next to Moses.
> Wayne: Last year's TV King will definitely be in the running this year, no matter what, even if he only has 1 series in contention this year. At this point, in terms of nominations, it really doesn't matter how his series "No Regrets" will do in the ratings because he's pretty much already guaranteed a spot on the top 5 list merely due to the fact that he has a series this year and he got the award last year -- it's like he's automatically entered into the contest. Wayne is known for his meticulous, brilliant acting in the entertainment circles and none of the contenders can 'beat' him so to speak in this arena, so of course there's really not a question of how 'good' his acting will be in "No Regrets" -- rather, the question is whether his performance in that series will 'beat out' the other contenders for the award -- or to put it more bluntly, whether TVB will give him the award over the 'favorites' that they are trying to push.
As for how TVB is treating him this year – well, they DID put him right next to Liza Wang during the group picture at the Lighting Ceremony, which is another ‘prime spot’ and shows that he is being pushed as the ‘other favorite’ (keep in mind that Moses is in the same position, but except on the other side right next to Liza Wang).
What I think: I will be quite happy if they give the award to Wayne, as I am confident that his performance in "No Regrets" will definitely be of high quality and he will probably be the one who most deserves it. Now, I'm sure people are going to say that it's unfair to give it to the same person or that his acting is at a different level than the other nominees so it's unfair to 'compare' because he has an obvious advantage with his experience and tenure, etc. etc. -- my response to this: yeah, whatever. People can make all the excuses they want, but the truth is that the acting of the other so-called nominees are just not up to par with Wayne's -- instead of whining about Wayne getting the award, they should see him as an example of how true acting SHOULD be done, learn from him, and bring their own acting up to his level so they can fairly compete.
Also, from TVB’s perspective, looks like the competition this year is really between Moses and Wayne (based on their positions for the group picture) – if that’s the case, I would rather they give it to Wayne.
> Steven: I guess technically Steven has 2 series in contention (AWT and GW), but honestly, AWT was aired so early in the year that no one is going to remember the series come awards time -- so I only considered GW for the purposes of this analysis. Steven's performance in GW was actually very good and had the same high quality that his previous roles had. Perhaps it may not be his 'representative work' and there was more 'hype' over Fala Chen's performance than his, but regardless, still a better job than most of the other nominees (except probably Wayne, though can’t really compare in terms of series since Wayne’s series just started airing today ). Plus GW did pretty well in terms of ratings and was well-received by audiences. Like Wayne back in his supporting actor days, Steven has always been one of those actors who is very underrated and often 'overlooked' by TVB -- which I don't understand since he definitely falls into the 'good-looking' category, which seems to be one of the 'pre-requisites' for those whom the management choose to promote. I can only conclude that TVB management doesn't really favor him because of his straightforward and direct personality, as I have seen several instances in which he 'spoke out' on issues that painted TVB in an unfavorable light (which they hate). Therefore, even though he will most likely get into the top 5, I consider him a 'dark horse' when it comes to winning the award.
Also, I noticed that in the Lighting Ceremony group picture, his placement was right next to Susanna Kwan (the second male on the left – so it’s Liza, then Wayne, then Sheren, then Louise Lee, then Susanna, then Steven)
What I think: I've always enjoyed Steven's performances, even if I hated the series itself (i.e.: Perish in the Name of Love -- I hated that series and almost every character in it except for his). There is a certain 'natural' quality to Steven's acting that makes his performances easily endearing to audiences. I would actually really like to see him win the award partly because he did a good job in GW, but also because he has always been consistently good in his other series, but rarely ever gets recognized by TVB. I think it's about time that he got rewarded for his many years of hard work. One thing I will say for sure -- if Steven does win it, I think I will probably cry tears of joy -- not because I'm a fan, but because someone who worked so hard and is more deserving of the award than some of the other nominees will finally get recognized for his efforts. (Sidenote: The ONLY other time that I cried when an artist won the TV King/Queen award was back in 2003 when Roger Kwok won it for the first time -- that was definitely a very emotional moment).
> Kevin: People may be wondering why I threw him into the top 5 prediction when he only has one series in the running this year, FOS, in which he was overshadowed by Kenneth Ma's excellent performance. I agree that with a lackluster performance and not much 'hype' this year, of course there is no justification for Kevin to make it in the top 5. However, let's not forget that he is Virginia Lok's favorite and it's pretty much guaranteed that she will try to get him into the Top 5 somehow, even if he has ZERO chance at winning the award this year -- it's pretty much so that TVB can 1) save face, since they have always touted Kevin as an 'awesome actor' (gag!) and 2) continued justification for why they gave him the TV King award back in 2006.
What I think: Ok, everyone knows how I feel about Kevin's acting ('he can't act' is an understatement). And he absolutely does NOT deserve any nomination this year -- but seeing how TVB likes to heavily (and shamelessly) promote their favorites, they definitely wouldn't leave Kevin out. Oh, and by the way, for those who say I'm biased against TVB -- I am just going to say that I would love nothing more than for me to be wrong this time around and someone else gets the spot other than Kevin.
So who do I WANT to get into Top 5? There’s actually no point in talking about it because I know it will NEVER happen.